Diplostack Quick Takes

When will Wellington officialdom show some backbone? & the value of Soft Power in a Hard Power world.

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• Subservience from the Wellington establishment

• Trumpism rejected by electorates; Canadian PM Carney speaks of US “betrayal”

• Silence is complicity when food and famine is used as a weapon of war

• Soft power - With the death of American academic Joseph Nye this week, this piece from the archives by the late Terence O’Brien on Soft Power - a concept Nye popularised - is relevant (from 2021).

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Appeasement, subservience, servility

Whatever the word, why is the NZ government clutching at straws with its approach to Trump 2.0 and not facing up to the reality of a fundamentally changed world? Helen Clark and Marco de Jong, both recent guests on Diplostack [1 & 2], decry the loss of an independence in their recent piece: Subservience puts New Zealand’s sovereignty and security at risk) (behind paywall)

the coalition Government is further unwinding New Zealand’s independent foreign policy

Focus on the fundamentals - Senior NZ officials have framed the world as black & white in the recent past, and independent perspectives have been poo pooed.

there’s 195 countries in the world with eight billion people in it, and each of those 195 countries also has an independent foreign policy - NZ PM Luxon in 2024 in Australia

Have they got it right: is the world black & white? There appears to be a Wellington establishment desire to rewind the clock and reintegrate NZ into a Cold War era seamless web of Western security (the dubious wording from the time) today reframed as a lattice fence of interlocking defence and security arrangements, led by the US, countering China. This all seems rather counterintuitive in a hybrid interconnected world which most agree exhibits shades of grey. Seeing the world through the lens of threat and hard power does not play into New Zealand soft power strengths. Is there a a fundamental systemic issue with the language and framing that our officials use?

With regard subservience, former Australian PM Malcom Turnbull recently stated in RNZ with Guyon Espiner: "I think showing weakness and subservience to Trump is a major, major mistake. I say this from my own experience, but there are so many examples you can point to.”

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Electorates in Australia and Canada show some spine

New Canadian premier Carney in his victory speech after the recent general election recognises clearly a fundamentally changed relationship with the US and with the world.

Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over. The system of open global trade anchored by the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that well not perfect has helped deliver prosperity for a country for decades, is over.

But it’s also our new reality.

We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons. We have to look out for ourselves and above all we have to take care of each other.

Carney later went on to meet Trump at the Whitehouse in an edgy yet generally civil exchange, at least compared to the Zelensky Trump fiasco.

In Australia, Dutton was frequently portrayed-by critics, the media, and even some within his own party-as “Australia’s Trump” or “Temu Trump,” referencing his hardline stances on immigration, public sector cuts, and culture war issues.

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Silence is Complicity

The Financial Times Editorial Board takes aim at the silence over Israel’s onslaught in Gaza and its plans to escalate. The west’s shameful silence on Gaza - FT.

Yet the US and European countries that tout Israel as an ally that shares their values have issued barely a word of condemnation. They should be ashamed of their silence, and stop enabling Netanyahu to act with impunity.

Ireland, Spain, Norway and others have sounded grave concerns. Where is New Zealand’s official voice? NZ has issued condemnations in the past eighteen months but none against Israel (Beehive website). The Guardian reports that even staunch Israel ally the Netherlands is raising the alarm of the use of hunger as a weapon (the Dutch of course suffered the Hongerwinter during World War 2).

The United Nations Human Rights Office of the Commissioner has come out with a blunt statement: End unfolding genocide or watch it end life in Gaza: UN experts say States face defining choice. As Prof Robert Patman from Otago University stated recently on Twitter/X:

I wonder what it takes for liberal democracies like New Zealand to find their voice and publicly condemn Israel's blockade of humanitarian aid to the residents of Gaza - they are not all members of Hamas - and the subsequent unilateral breach of the ceasefire by Netanyahu's govt.

The calls for New Zealand to condemn Israel’s actions in Gaza are growing.

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From the Archives - Terence O’Brien on Soft Power (2021)

NZ soft power derives in fact from more than just the Covid 19 response. It stems from NZ’s situation as a small unthreatening progressive democracy that has placed reconciliation at the centre of that democracy (the Waitangi Treaty) while at the same time striving to adjust to a multicultural future. The political, cultural and socio-economic challenges are real. Progress is sometimes controversial, complacency self-defeating. Overall the task represents a permanent rite of passage to fulfilled Aoteroa-NZ nationhood.

This distinguishes NZ somewhat from those other larger democracies possessing lots of hard power but where, for example, racial injustice against indigenous and other peoples and their cultures persists,alongside deep economic, cultural and political division. NZ’s response to the Covid 19 pandemic serves to enhance soft power credentials but the foundations rest more broadly and are not the mere product of slick public relations promotion. Moreover the value of soft power requires to be understood in terms of the current and future state of the world. Smaller democracies have so far in fact handled more effectively both the challenges of the Covid response as well as the toxic dangers of populism. They can learn from each other.

NZ travels internationally, for the most part, beneath the radar screens of the powerful. That is no disadvantage provided NZ diplomacy, including military diplomacy, is nimble and adaptable. A small professional defence force is a real NZ national asset. Possessing authentic global interests NZ is obliged, within its means, it to play a part, in support of international peace, reconciliation, equality and sustainable development. Employment of NZDEF should always be dovetailed with foreign policy and in particular long established NZ support for the UN and the rule of international law. The NZ record of support for UN peacekeeping has however regrettably slipped. In this connexion the decision by Ireland to invest the Cabinet portfolios of Foreign Minister and Defence Minister in one and the same person perhaps offers food for thought?

Soft power supplies insulation for the independent foreign policy to which successive NZ governments have laid claim. Evenhandedness in foreign policy is important especially in the new and complex age of modern great power rivalry, as the US and China, adjust to China’s emergence. Where necessary the insulation provided by soft power, for example, allows NZ , to draw daylight from Five Eyes partners in relation to China when the national interest is judged to be better served by a different approach.

NZ soft power has provided insulation in past dramatic times. The introduction of NZ non-nuclear policy in the 1980s drove adamant opponents inside Washington to favour strong retribution to teach NZ, and others, a sharp lesson; other wiser US heads prevailed concerned lest the image of dire American punishment of a small unthreatening country’s democratic choice, would rebound on the US reputation and interests. The status of ’friend but not ally’ of the US which emerged from the disagreement suits NZ’s modern international circumstances.

The American academic Joseph Nye who first popularised the concept of soft power in international relations saw it in terms very much as the adjunct to the hard power which America, of course, possesses in spades. Harnessed together this multiplied the US ability to persuade others to support American interests in the world. Nye did acknowledge that larger European allies also possess soft power. The notion that smaller democracies absent hard power, might also enjoy, or cultivate, soft power which protects independent foreign policy, exceeded his imagination.