Diplostack Quick Takes
Malcom Turnbull on AUKUS & more, Ocean of Peace, Pope Francis's independent foreign policy, and Diplosphere @ Parliament recap video
1/ Malcom Turnbull is concerned about defence & sovereignty in this 30’ discussion with Jake Tame on TVNZ's Q&A.
On the agenda: Trump, trade & security from a NZ/AU point-of-view.
On AUKUS - Trump is ripping up the rule book, hard earned trust has been torpedoed. Regardless of what happens next, things will not be the same. Turnbull laments the fact AUKUS Pillar 1 (nuclear powered attack submarines) was chosen by Morrison in 2021 over the French non-nuclear submarine option. Australia is unlikely not to have a sovereign submarine capability for decades … relying on American largess in the meantime. And in Trump’s USA not much can be taken for granted. The UK constructedSSNs (Ship Submersible Nuclear) are set to be built in the 2040s.
we were masters of our own destiny [with the French submarine option]
Turnbull was more enthusiastic about AUKUS Pillar 2 (tech & intel sharing) but was rather ambivalent when challenged by Tame on the perception of AUKUS as a “China containment strategy” (part of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy). The wisdom of antagonising our largest trading partner at a time of American global retreat is a pertinent one.
What is surprising is how security political types in NZ’s upper echelons could not envisage this world. Trump’s “America First” world outlook has been on the cards for some time. Why did our strategists choose to ignore it? Foresight? They should have engaged more with Diplosphere as we have made the point for a balanced independent.
[the challenge for AU/NZ] we have to look to a world where there is no longer American leadership the way there was before. […] America has been an imperfect practitioner of its own values but now Trump is not even pretending to have those values
2/ Marco de Jong & Dylan Asafo discuss the “Ocean of Peace” proposal to be discussed in the Pacific Islands Forum in September in E-Tangata
For the Ocean of Peace declaration to be meaningful, it must address the militarisation of the region by larger outside powers.
Two paradigms for regional security in our region exist: “western-aligned stability” and “independent solidarity”. New Zealand has supported the former to-date but the Ocean of Peace notion gives strong cause to the latter.
In the first, which we might call “western-aligned stability,” the Ocean of Peace would form part of a security architecture undergirded by Australia and New Zealand that facilitates peacekeeping to maintain the existing regional order.
In the second — “independent solidarity” — it would advance an expanded notion of Pacific-led security focused on peacebuilding through human development, climate action, and nuclear disarmament outside of intensifying major power competition.
To give the Ocean of Peace “teeth”, the authors argue for several means including peaceful purposes reservations (PPRs) to reduce militarisation.
3/ RNZ - Geoffrey Miller recommends doubling down on independent foreign policy
The new defence capability plan wants NZ to be a US ally in all but name. It's a lose-lose proposition. We lose hard earned trust with China by unnecessarily antagonising our largest trading partner pointing our finger only at them. And in the case of a pinch, we have no security guaranty from the US. Security guaranties are looking shaky indeed today and why are we even seeking one. We are “painting a target on our back". It really begs the question, what are the master strategists in Wellington thinking, what is their game plan?
Miller is spot on here.
4/ Pope Francis’s led an independent foreign policy, as reported by Foreign Affairs here (behind paywall).
Francis charted a diplomatic course independent of Western capitals, elevated Catholic leaders in countries that had never been part of the church’s governance, and honed a diplomatic method that is both pragmatic and aspirational.
From Prof Juan Cole (University of Michigan) on the Savage Minds Substack - almost alone of Western leaders, he showed enormous sympathy for the plight of the Palestinian civilians of Gaza
The consequence of the Pope’s comments throughout was a humanization of the Palestinians—a humanization of which US and British media outlets have largely proved themselves incapable. The only way they can be all right with over 17,000 dead children in Israel’s campaign against Gaza is that they do not see them as truly human.
Author & Historian William Dalrymple concurs that the Western media have fallen woefully short in comparison.
5/ Thanks to Diplosphere youth leader
for this video take of David Parker’s address at Parliament hosted by Diplosphere several weeks ago[*] Place de la Concorde - where Louis XVI was guillotined in 1793, and where, according to legend, he asked after French Pacific explorer La Perouse in his last words. The nearby Hôtel de la Marine has an exhibition on the explorer, presently.
Re David Parker I couldn't attend as I no longer live in Wellington but I'm aware of the content. I was saddened that shortly after he announced his departure from politics. Makes me wonder what the Labour party foreign policy is going to look like going forwards...