God Defend NZ - from What?
Much for the incoming NZ government to ponder
Diplosphere held an event God Defend NZ - from What? on Thu 2 Nov, where we discussed geopolitics, NZ elections & foreign policy and much more. You can listen to proceedings here:
Some excerpts from the event:
China, the US, & NZ
US-China Relationship's Impact on Us: The dynamic between the US and China directly affects New Zealand's position in the world, necessitating a thoughtful approach to foreign relations in this area.
"You may not be interested in the US-China relationship, but the US-China relationship is interested in you."
New Zealand must navigate the complexities of its relationship with China, a major economic and commercial partner. "New Zealand's relations with China... are going to face us and face a new government over the next few years, or in fact even longer than that."
Global Economic Significance: China's significant global economic footprint, with a large population and middle class, makes it an important partner for many countries, including New Zealand. "We do very well in China, China does very well in New Zealand, it's a mutually beneficial relationship."
Communication: It is crucial for New Zealand to maintain open lines of communication with China, even when discussing sensitive topics where there may be disagreements. "You have to be able to share views with countries which don't agree with you. That's one of the key elements in international relations."
Evenhandedness: Recent government publications mention China's assertiveness in the Pacific region, but: "Only pointing out the exceptional behaviour of one great power is not really even-handed, and does not lend itself to a just view." New Zealand should disavow exceptionalism as it is not compatible with the concept of fair global rules.
Leadership & Confidence
"Perhaps the pandemic has taken a dent in our confidence, and then there's always a tendency for a small island country [...] to retreat into a self-satisfied and self-deluding mindset."
"What our next foreign minister can do something about, if helpful, is to be really active and present in our Indo-Pacific region and globally to ensure that New Zealand retains its relevance and that we retain our value to our significant others."
Regardless of the MFAT’s organisation, the reality is that the prime minister often assumes the main role of foreign minister. "Chris Luxon is the real foreign minister, whoever between the obvious candidates gets the formal nod."
Independent Foreign Policy?
"What does it really mean? Why is it different from the foreign policy of any other country putting its national interests first?"
New Zealand has historically pursued an independent foreign policy, highlighted by its non-nuclear stance. However, maintaining this independence in practice can be challenging, and it often gets minimal emphasis in official policy documents. "Successive governments over the years have laid claim to an independent NZ foreign policy." New Zealand must determine its own foreign policy stance, considering but not relying entirely on the positions of other nations. "We have to figure these things out for ourselves... We cannot franchise our decision-making to those countries."
Hard Power Thinking: New Zealand's recent foreign policy publications show a shift towards the language of hard power and national security, as noted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) and the Department of the Prime Minister & Cabinet (DPMC). This shift has implications for how NZ positions itself globally. "New Zealand should consider carefully the consequences when adopting the language of hard power, of national security, as officialdom has done in recent publications by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT), and the Department of the Prime Minister & Cabinet (DPMC)."
Global Shifts
The “Unipolar Moment” is in the Rearview Mirror: NZ foreign policy needs to adapt to global shifts like the transition from a unipolar world to one marked by interdependence and transnational challenges. This includes preparing for the rise of economies like China, India, and Indonesia, and addressing existential threats like climate change and artificial intelligence. "US National Security advisor Jake Sullivan described a new period of competition in an age of interdependence and transnational challenges."
Rules-Based International Order: New Zealand has committed to a global, rules-based order, acknowledging the need for emerging leaders to have equal management rights in international institutions. This commitment is part of NZ's dedication to good global citizenship and adapting to changing international dynamics."It is logical that emerging leaders be entitled to equality in management of international institutions - like the UN, the IMF, the WTO, the World Bank - that provide bedrock for the international rules based system."
Impact of International Events on Small Nations: a speaker noted the vulnerability of smaller nations like New Zealand to global events, implying the interconnectedness that brings even distant issues to their shores. “this is really a very difficult set of currents, and eventually everything does wash up on our shores” … "I think we're in a very dangerous situation, we've got a proxy war going on in Europe, we've got the possibility of something far larger than the Israel versus Hamas fight developing out of the situation in the Middle East."
Event Feedback
We had 151 registrations for the event (CSAT 4.1/5 from survey). Event feedback highlighted appreciation for the depth of expertise and diverse perspectives among speakers, but also noted a need for more in-depth analysis. Attendees valued the personal interaction with panelists and called for greater public engagement in New Zealand's foreign policy discourse.
Attendees expressed interest in a wide range of topics including Asia's geopolitical dynamics, the future of China's relationship with New Zealand, India's emerging role, UN reform, social entrepreneurship, AI and technology, New Zealand's independent foreign policy, and its position in the Pacific region. Other areas of interest included defense, climate change, trade patterns, international politics, the impact of technology on environment, Middle Eastern affairs, and broader themes like imperialism vs democracy, and militarism vs environmental concerns. This diversity reflects a keen interest in both regional and global issues affecting New Zealand's foreign policy.
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